Venezuela says its new 25-year U.S. energy agreement is targeting more than 1.5 million barrels of oil production per day across 17 strategic oilfields.

That sounds like a recipe for dramatically cheaper oil and gasoline.

But not so fast.

Venezuela’s energy infrastructure has suffered from years of underinvestment, meaning rebuilding production capacity could take years.

At the same time, Russia has extended its diesel-export ban through September 30 following refinery disruptions—removing another source of fuel from the international market.

Brent crude finished Friday at $89.31, down more than 5% for the week, as traders balanced improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz against geopolitical risks, Russian refinery problems and a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

The result is one of the most conflicted oil-market setups we’ve seen recently:

Massive potential Venezuelan supply later.

Global fuel constraints now.

We break down what it could mean for crude oil, gasoline prices, inflation and the broader market.

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