Oil almost touched ninety-eight dollars overnight while OPEC+ chose not to add more supply. Brent futures hit ninety-seven dollars and ninety-three cents before easing near ninety-six, but the bigger story is what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz.

New Kpler data show the ten-day average of commodity ship transits fell to about ten a day, the lowest since May. Only six crossed Sunday. No very large crude carrier has exited since Wednesday. Saturday's U.S.-Iran tanker strikes pushed the conflict directly into commercial energy shipping, and Iran now says it plans a restricted zone outside the strait in the coming days.

OPEC+ tightened the picture further. Seven core producers said Sunday they will hold October output at September levels rather than raising it again.

The inflation connection runs deeper than oil. Diesel hit record highs last week, and markets are pricing roughly a fifty-eight percent chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week after Friday's strong jobs report.

Friday's consumer inflation report is the next test. If energy pressure spreads, the Fed's decision gets harder. If oil falls and shipping normalizes, that pressure could ease.

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