Oil hit ninety-nine dollars a barrel after Iran-backed Houthi forces struck southern Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. Saudi officials say operations at some facilities were temporarily halted. Brent crude rose about two percent to ninety-nine dollars. West Texas Intermediate climbed more than three percent to about ninety-four dollars and forty-one cents.

This changes the risk profile. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was already disrupted. Now energy infrastructure inside the world's top oil exporter has been hit too.

That matters for inflation. The ten-year Treasury yield is around four point eight zero percent, near its highest since November twenty twenty-three. S&P five hundred futures were down about three-tenths of a percent before Wall Street's reopening.

Gold is sending a different signal. Spot gold slipped about three-tenths of a percent to around four thousand three hundred ninety dollars. Higher oil can increase inflation pressure, but higher interest-rate expectations can weigh on gold.

That makes this week's inflation data even more important. Producer prices arrive Thursday. Consumer prices arrive Friday. The Federal Reserve meets September fifteenth and sixteenth.

The key question is simple: does oil stay near one hundred dollars long enough to reinforce the inflation problem?

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