Oil is falling while supply risk is rising. Here’s what’s driving it.

WTI crude fell about 2% to roughly $99.50 Monday, with Brent near $108. Gulf crude exports reportedly dropped to around 8.5 million barrels a day last week, down from more than 20 million, as shipping attacks escalated.

Markets are pricing in something else: the possibility of more Russian fuel flowing into global markets after Washington’s Friday waiver of new Russia-related sanctions and tariffs.

The next test is whether WTI stays below $100. If it does, inflation pressure could ease.

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