A ship was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, and the crew was evacuated after a fire broke out. The reason this one matters: Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is already shut after drone strikes.

That pipeline had been moving four to five million barrels a day — roughly four to five percent of global supply — while Hormuz has been largely disrupted by war. So the risk isn't one tanker. It's that both of the region's main oil routes are under pressure at the same time.

Oil was already above one hundred dollars last week, and another supply shock could feed directly into fuel costs and inflation. The next test comes Monday, when regional countries meet over the future of Hormuz.

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