Gold is back above $4,400 an ounce while the Federal Reserve debates raising rates. That combination isn't supposed to work — higher rates usually crush gold because gold pays no yield. It's climbing anyway, and there are two clear reasons.

First, the dollar has slipped three sessions in a row and sits near its weakest since May, making gold cheaper for buyers outside the U.S. Second, the inflation risk hasn't gone away. The Strait of Hormuz — roughly a fifth of the world's oil — has been effectively closed since late February with reopening talks stalled. Brent crude is near $89.

Investors are treating gold as an inflation hedge, not a rate-cut trade. Bitcoin isn't getting that same bid — it's near $63,000, flat on the day and lower on the week. The hedge money is choosing metal over crypto.

Stocks aren't flinching. The S&P 500 closed Friday within a quarter percent of Thursday's record and futures are higher this morning.

Wednesday afternoon is the event. The Fed releases the July meeting minutes — the meeting where three officials voted to hike while the majority held. Markets put September hike odds near one in three.

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