The most important oil chokepoint on earth is running at 17% of normal traffic — and it got MORE dangerous this weekend, not less. Meanwhile U.S. stocks closed a fraction below a record high. Somebody is wrong.

Saturday: British maritime authorities report a bulk carrier hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz. That follows three attacks on Abu Dhabi's state oil tankers in 48 hours, and Iran's foreign minister saying Tehran still hasn't decided whether to come back to the table.

So why is Wall Street calm? Because it's pricing this as a price problem, not a growth problem. July inflation cooled a second straight month to 3.4%. Traders put roughly 7 in 10 odds on the Fed holding next month. Volatility closed at its lowest level of the year.

But look at the American consumer and the picture changes fast. Retail sales fell 0.6% in July — the first drop in nine months. Consumer sentiment slid to 51. Gas is near $4 a gallon and wage growth is running behind inflation. That's the part nobody on TV wants to lead with.

Crude settled near $82. Gold is holding around $4,400, up more than 10% in a month. Bitcoin near $63,000 has NOT joined that move — and that divergence matters.

This week tests everything: Home Depot Tuesday, Target Wednesday, Walmart Thursday, and Fed minutes Wednesday from a meeting where three officials voted to RAISE rates.

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DISCLAIMER: Educational purposes only. I am not a licensed financial advisor. This is not financial or investment advice. Markets are volatile. Always do your own research.

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