The ten-year Treasury yield just hit its highest level since two thousand seven, climbing to about five point zero three percent overnight. That number reaches far beyond the bond market — the ten-year helps set borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgages, and higher yields put pressure on stock valuations at the same time.

The bigger issue is inflation. Brent crude was still near one hundred eight dollars a barrel, keeping price pressures in focus as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting. Markets now price more than a ninety-four percent chance of a rate hike Wednesday.

The hike is largely priced in. The real test is whether policymakers signal one hike — or the start of a new hiking cycle.

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