Nvidia and the Nasdaq closed at records on Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002 on the same day, and it did so after a weak jobs report that should have pushed it lower. That is the detail most headlines missed. Stock prices are a race between growing profits and a rising discount rate, and right now AI profits are winning. Earnings season starts next week. Here is what has to go right for that to continue, and the 1 thing that only has to go wrong.

Three Fed dissenters, a 30-year Treasury yield at its highest since 2007, and a 19% monthly drawdown in semiconductors dragged the Dow down 2.19% — its worst day since April 2025. Microsoft surged, Meta sank, oil jumped 7.9% on Iran escalation, and crypto punished leverage on a flat tape. Here's the full decode, plus what today's PCE and GDP prints could trigger.

Bitcoin is holding near $64,500 after a quiet weekend, but the real story is what Wall Street walked away from — Tesla's worst earnings reaction on record, $800 billion erased from the Magnificent 7, Brent crude at $100, and a Federal Reserve decision landing Wednesday.