Walmart delivered an earnings beat and a guidance raise, then suffered its worst day in years. The problem wasn't profit — it was the shopper. U.S. comparable sales grew just 2.6% against expectations of 3.7%, the slowest pace since 2020, with the company pointing directly at high gas prices. With Brent crude near $94 on Iran sanctions rhetoric and Treasury yields climbing despite a surprise buyback plan, one retailer just told the market exactly where the American consumer stands.

Bitcoin posted its biggest day since March, climbing roughly 11% to near $71,800 — but the catalyst wasn't crypto news. It was a Treasury Department announcement doubling long-term bond buybacks, which pulled the 30-year yield down to 5.2% and triggered a record $1 billion short squeeze. Ethereum ran even harder, up 19%. Here's the mechanism behind the move, why Fed minutes and $94 oil complicate the story, and the single earnings report that resolves it.

The American consumer just posted the biggest spending drop in more than a year — and small-cap stocks closed at an all-time high the same day. The equity market saw cheaper money coming. The bond market pushed the 10-year to 4.68% and disagreed. Only one of them can be right, and Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, and Walmart start settling it this week.