The United States struck 3 Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one off Kharg Island — Iran's primary crude export terminal. Brent had already closed Friday at $96.28 after a 7.6% weekly gain, with WTI near $91.48 and gasoline averaging roughly $4.15 into a record Labor Day weekend. Now OPEC+ meets Sunday, oil futures reopen Sunday evening, and U.S. equity markets stay closed Monday — giving crude roughly 36 hours to reprice inflation and interest rate expectations with no stock market to argue with it. Here's the full transmission chain from tanker to equity multiple, what separates a risk premium from a real supply disruption, and the falsification test to write down before futures reopen.

The world's most important oil chokepoint is operating at 17% of normal capacity under active attack — and U.S. stocks closed the week a fraction below a record high. That gap isn't irrational. It's a specific, testable bet that this is a price problem, not a growth problem. Here's what breaks it, and why this week's retail earnings and Fed minutes are the stress test.

Oil cracked below $80 after President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran, sending crude down 6% and lifting gold to $4,100. South Korea's Kospi lost 5.13% overnight while U.S. futures pointed higher, and AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb reportedly held talks on a $400 billion combination. Crypto sat the rally out entirely. Here's what's driving the rotation and what to watch this week.