Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below forecasts, and the prior 2 months were revised down by 60,000. Stocks rallied anyway. The reason is a rate-hike repricing that only works inside a narrow band: soft enough to stay the Fed's hand, not soft enough to threaten earnings. Here's how that band works, and why the October 14 CPI report could break it.

The 10-year Treasury yield just broke its 2007 peak and hit its highest level in 24 years — the morning after inflation came in cooler than expected. When good news can't bring long-term rates down, the bond market is sending a message. Here's what's really driving yields, how it hits your mortgage and portfolio, and the 3 jobs-report scenarios that could decide what happens next.

The August jobs report was a blowout: 162,000 jobs added against a 56,000 forecast, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Stocks fell anyway. The reason isn't complicated once you see it — this report didn't change the economy, it changed the Fed's constraint. Here's the mechanism, why the 2-year Treasury moved before equities did, how oil at $91.48 opens a second inflation channel, and what Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI will actually decide.

Stocks rallied Thursday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled he could support holding rates steady in September. But Waller offered a conditional, not a commitment — and the same morning's ISM report showed services prices at their hottest since August 2022 with employment contracting for a second straight month. Here's why the market's reaction function has inverted, what the three jobs-report scenarios actually mean, and what would prove this thesis wrong.

Nvidia gained 8.7% on AI guidance Thursday, then fell 4.6% Friday on news that had nothing to do with Nvidia. What changed was the price of money. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh put the 2% target back at the center of the market, September rate hike odds jumped from roughly 35% to 57%, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 13 basis points to a one-month high, and gold dropped 3%. Here's the full causal chain, the falsification test for whether it holds, and the three scenarios for the August jobs report.