Nvidia gained 8.7% on AI guidance Thursday, then fell 4.6% Friday on news that had nothing to do with Nvidia. What changed was the price of money. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh put the 2% target back at the center of the market, September rate hike odds jumped from roughly 35% to 57%, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 13 basis points to a one-month high, and gold dropped 3%. Here's the full causal chain, the falsification test for whether it holds, and the three scenarios for the August jobs report.

Nvidia's $442 billion single-day market cap gain was historic, but the rally underneath it was narrow — only tech finished higher, even as Salesforce and CrowdStrike surged on their own guidance raises. With oil rebounding and Kevin Warsh set to speak at Jackson Hole, here's what actually moved markets Thursday and what to watch next.

Nvidia reported $96.2 billion in revenue and 117% data-center growth — but the stock only took off after guidance blew past estimates. Here's why the reversal matters, what sticky inflation means for rate expectations, and what to watch at Jackson Hole.