Oil just pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2004. Then reports of U.S.-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz knocked Brent $3 lower in minutes. Here's why the bond market is treating oil as an inflation problem, not a growth problem, and why next week's inflation data and jobs report could decide where yields go next.

Brent crude pushed past $100 a barrel Wednesday for the first time since July 24 — and S&P 500 futures barely moved. That gap isn't complacency. With the 10-year Treasury near 4.80% and futures pricing roughly 60% odds the Fed raises rates next week, the oil shock has already been absorbed through the rates channel instead of the equity channel. Thursday's PPI print is the sharper test of whether it leaks into everything else.

A softer-than-expected PPI report sent Bitcoin toward $65,000 and Ethereum to $1,890, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed on tech strength and oil extended gains on Middle East tensions.

A cooler-than-expected June CPI report sent Bitcoin surging toward $65,000, while spot ETFs snapped an 8-week outflow streak with fresh institutional inflows. Ethereum and XRP joined the rally. Here's what's driving the move and what to watch next.