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Oil Near $98, But 10 Ships a Day Is the Number That Actually Matters

Brent crude ran to $97.93 overnight and OPEC+ declined to add supply, but the number that actually explains this market is 10: the daily average of commodity ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the lowest since May. No very large crude carrier has exited since Wednesday. Here's why spare capacity can't fix a chokepoint, how diesel carries this into the inflation data, and the four signals that would prove the thesis wrong.

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Oil Jumps 5%, Yields Hit a 3-Year High — and Gold Refused to Rally. That's the Real Story.

Brent settled at $94.65 and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.81% as renewed U.S.-Iran fighting near the Strait of Hormuz put a war premium back into crude. But gold made a 3-week low instead of rallying — and that single contradiction tells you more about this market than the oil headline does. Here's the transmission chain from a barrel of crude to your portfolio's discount rate, plus the four conditions that would break the thesis.

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Trump Calls Off Iran Strike as Hormuz Reopening Enters the Deal: OPEC+ Adds Barrels, Cardano Jumps 9%

President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran late Saturday, citing agreement on a deal that would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint carrying one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil. OPEC+ added 188,000 barrels a day to September quotas, the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007, and Cardano jumped 9% ahead of a key ETF eligibility date. Here's what actually moved and what it means for the week ahead.

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