Brent crude has fallen more than 6% in two sessions, Treasury yields dropped, and stocks closed green — but nothing about Fed policy changed. Every one of those moves traces back to a single waterway. Here's the mechanism connecting the Strait of Hormuz to the 10-year yield, the PCE trap waiting this morning, and the 4 data points that will confirm or break this rally.

The world's most important oil chokepoint is operating at 17% of normal capacity under active attack — and U.S. stocks closed the week a fraction below a record high. That gap isn't irrational. It's a specific, testable bet that this is a price problem, not a growth problem. Here's what breaks it, and why this week's retail earnings and Fed minutes are the stress test.

While U.S. strikes on Iran sent traditional markets into risk-off mode, Bitcoin held remarkably steady near $63,000. Here's what's driving that resilience — plus updates on the Clarity Act, the BIP-110 debate, Ripple's near-shutdown revelation, and more.

Bitcoin vaulted to $72,700, Ethereum climbed 5%, XRP jumped nearly 5%, and $427 million in short positions were wiped out in a single day — all triggered by one geopolitical headline. Here's the full breakdown of every move that mattered.