The United States struck 3 Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one off Kharg Island — Iran's primary crude export terminal. Brent had already closed Friday at $96.28 after a 7.6% weekly gain, with WTI near $91.48 and gasoline averaging roughly $4.15 into a record Labor Day weekend. Now OPEC+ meets Sunday, oil futures reopen Sunday evening, and U.S. equity markets stay closed Monday — giving crude roughly 36 hours to reprice inflation and interest rate expectations with no stock market to argue with it. Here's the full transmission chain from tanker to equity multiple, what separates a risk premium from a real supply disruption, and the falsification test to write down before futures reopen.

Nvidia assembled a $500 billion AI war chest with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR — and the stock fell anyway. Crude surged 5% to $82 on stalled Strait of Hormuz talks, driving the 10-year above 4.7% and flipping September Fed odds toward a hike. Bitcoin failed at $65,000 for a fourth straight day while gold pushed to $4,357. Here's the one variable driving all of it — and why Wednesday's CPI decides what happens next.