The world's most important oil chokepoint is operating at 17% of normal capacity under active attack — and U.S. stocks closed the week a fraction below a record high. That gap isn't irrational. It's a specific, testable bet that this is a price problem, not a growth problem. Here's what breaks it, and why this week's retail earnings and Fed minutes are the stress test.

The American consumer just posted the biggest spending drop in more than a year — and small-cap stocks closed at an all-time high the same day. The equity market saw cheaper money coming. The bond market pushed the 10-year to 4.68% and disagreed. Only one of them can be right, and Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, and Walmart start settling it this week.