Nvidia assembled a $500 billion AI war chest with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR — and the stock fell anyway. Crude surged 5% to $82 on stalled Strait of Hormuz talks, driving the 10-year above 4.7% and flipping September Fed odds toward a hike. Bitcoin failed at $65,000 for a fourth straight day while gold pushed to $4,357. Here's the one variable driving all of it — and why Wednesday's CPI decides what happens next.

Oil climbed for a third straight session after Iran ruled out direct talks with Washington, pushing gold toward $4,400 and silver past $64. Meanwhile the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757 and Nasdaq futures led again overnight. Capital is hedging Wednesday's inflation print two contradictory ways at once — here's what that rotation is telling you.