The Fed just raised rates for the first time in more than 3 years, but the hike isn't the real story. With 16 of 18 policymakers projecting another hike by year-end, markets are repricing the whole path. The 2-year yield jumped, the Dow slid, and the Nasdaq held firm. The next test comes when bond markets reopen today.

Nvidia gained 8.7% on AI guidance Thursday, then fell 4.6% Friday on news that had nothing to do with Nvidia. What changed was the price of money. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh put the 2% target back at the center of the market, September rate hike odds jumped from roughly 35% to 57%, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 13 basis points to a one-month high, and gold dropped 3%. Here's the full causal chain, the falsification test for whether it holds, and the three scenarios for the August jobs report.