Iran just raised the stakes in the Strait of Hormuz. After President Trump publicly rejected Tehran's reopening proposal on Saturday, Iran's army said Sunday it is prepared for renewed U.S. attacks and will not accept being unable to trade while others use the region's strategic waterways. Iran's foreign minister says any reopening still depends on Tehran's conditions being met.

That puts oil traders in a tough spot. Brent crude slid more than two percent Friday to around one hundred four dollars as markets leaned into diplomacy. Before the war, about one-fifth of the world's oil supply passed through Hormuz.

The key question when crude trading reopens: does Brent jump, or does the market keep betting that negotiations hold?

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