Rate-hike odds are at sixty-six percent and the bond market is flashing the same warning. The ten-year Treasury yield is near four point seven eight percent, the highest since January twenty twenty-five.

Oil is around ninety-two dollars after renewed U.S.-Iran fighting revived supply fears near Hormuz. Sticky energy costs compound the pressure from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish message Friday. Meanwhile the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to two hundred eighty-six point six million barrels, the lowest level since November nineteen eighty-two, so the emergency cushion is thinning exactly as crude rises.

Gold is not behaving like an inflation hedge here. Spot gold fell one point two percent to roughly four thousand three hundred ninety-four dollars, because rising Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Labor data is the next test. ADP Wednesday, the August jobs report Friday. Strong data reinforces the rate-hike case. Weak data challenges it.

Oil higher, yields higher, rate-hike odds higher. Friday tells us whether this repricing has more room.

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