Rate-hike odds just fell to a coin flip, and the market ran with it. The S&P five hundred rose one point one percent Thursday, and the Nasdaq gained one point four percent.

The trigger was Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller saying he would support holding rates steady this month if incoming data confirms inflation is cooling. Fed funds futures cut the implied chance of a September hike from about sixty-three percent to roughly fifty percent, and the ten-year Treasury yield dropped to around four point seven six percent after hitting its highest level since November twenty twenty-three a day earlier.

Here's the catch. The ISM Services index climbed to fifty-five point four, showing demand is still strong, while its prices-paid index hit seventy-two point six — the highest since October twenty twenty-two. Solid demand, stubborn price pressure. That combination keeps the Fed cautious.

The next test arrives this morning. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect August payrolls to rise about fifty-six thousand after July lost twenty-three thousand jobs, with unemployment near four point one percent.

Markets are celebrating a possible pause. Today's jobs report decides whether that celebration holds.

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