Borrowing costs just hit a twenty-year high, and oil is the reason. The thirty-year Treasury yield reached about five-point-four-eight percent Thursday, the highest since two thousand four. The ten-year climbed to about five-point-two percent, last seen in two thousand seven.

Renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia sent oil higher on supply fears, adding fuel to inflation concerns with the U.S. economy still running strong. Then reports surfaced that U.S. and Iranian negotiators were exploring a path to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude fell roughly three dollars in minutes, and stocks recovered much of their losses.

What matters now is whether oil stays elevated and keeps yields high. Next week's inflation data and jobs report will be the test.

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