Oil prices just fell nearly 4%, with Brent near $109 and West Texas Intermediate near $100, as Iran-Qatar talks raised hopes of easing supply disruptions. But ADNOC’s chief executive says nearly 1 billion barrels have been drained from global inventories since the Hormuz disruptions began. Diesel stockpiles in some regions are near 35-year seasonal lows, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy said two tankers struck mines on Sunday.

Here is what that could mean for fuel, freight, inflation, and interest-rate expectations, and the signal to watch next.

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