Oil jumped five percent, Treasury yields hit a near three-year high, and gold — the asset everyone expects to run during conflict — actually fell. That's the contradiction we're decoding today.

Renewed U.S.–Iran fighting near the Strait of Hormuz is the driver. Brent settled Tuesday at ninety-four dollars and sixty-five cents, up four point six percent. WTI gained five point two percent. Overnight, Brent briefly touched ninety-seven dollars before easing back near ninety-five.

Higher oil can keep inflation elevated, and markets are now pricing a higher chance of another Federal Reserve hike. The ten-year Treasury yield reached about four point eight one percent, its highest since twenty twenty-three. The two-year yield climbed near four point four one percent.

Stocks reacted. The Nasdaq fell about one percent Tuesday, the S&P five hundred lost seven-tenths, and energy was the only S&P sector in the green.

Meanwhile spot gold fell to a more than three-week low near four thousand three hundred twenty-four dollars as higher yields and a stronger dollar outweighed safe-haven demand.

Next test: eight fifteen Eastern, ADP private payrolls. A strong number reinforces the rate-hike case. A weak one complicates it.

Oil is now more than an energy story. It's an inflation, interest-rate, and stock-valuation story.

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