Jobs Beat Expectations, Stocks Fell Anyway — Fed Hike Odds Jump to 60%
The August jobs report came in nearly triple what economists expected — one hundred sixty-two thousand jobs added, with unemployment holding at four point one percent. And stocks still fell. That reaction tells you exactly where this market's attention is: not on growth, on the Federal Reserve.
With inflation still elevated, a strong labor market gives the Fed more room to hike. September hike odds moved from about fifty percent before the report to roughly sixty percent afterward. The two-year Treasury yield rose to about four point three seven percent, briefly its highest level since January twenty twenty-five. The S and P five hundred fell zero point four percent, the Nasdaq fell zero point three percent.
Oil is the second pressure point. West Texas Intermediate settled near ninety-one dollars and forty-eight cents after gaining nearly ten percent on the week as Middle East supply routes stayed disrupted — an energy-driven inflation risk that has not gone away.
The week now turns on inflation. Producer prices land Thursday. Consumer prices land Friday. Hot data strengthens the hike case. Cooler data could swing the Fed back toward holding.
The job market just gave the Fed more room to fight inflation, and markets reacted accordingly.
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