One trade is carrying most of Wall Street's profit growth right now, and it's AI. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to rise about 30% from a year ago this quarter, with roughly two-thirds of that increase expected to come from technology and AI heavyweights like Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta.

Here's the part that matters: semiconductor earnings are projected to surge about 136%. That helps explain why stocks have stayed near records even with the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%.

It also raises the bar. If AI profits disappoint, the market loses one of its biggest supports.

Next up: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) reports earnings Thursday, giving investors a fresh read on AI-chip demand.

AI is doing the heavy lifting for corporate profits. Thursday shows whether it can keep carrying the load.

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