Gold just dropped 3% on the same day oil spiked on Middle East tension, and that's not how safe havens are supposed to behave. The reason comes down to yields, the dollar, and a 70% chance of another Fed hike. With Wednesday's PCE report approaching, here's what could flip gold's story next.

Nvidia gained 8.7% on AI guidance Thursday, then fell 4.6% Friday on news that had nothing to do with Nvidia. What changed was the price of money. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh put the 2% target back at the center of the market, September rate hike odds jumped from roughly 35% to 57%, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 13 basis points to a one-month high, and gold dropped 3%. Here's the full causal chain, the falsification test for whether it holds, and the three scenarios for the August jobs report.