Oil Back Above $100: Why Energy Inflation Could Keep Rates High
Oil just jumped back above $100, with Brent hitting its highest settlement since April after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia. But the real risk isn't the gas pump. It's what a sustained energy shock does to inflation expectations, and what the Fed might do about it. Here's how a barrel of crude reaches your borrowing costs, and what to watch when the Fed decides on October 28.
OPEC+ Holds November Targets With Brent Above $100: Why the Real Story Is Barrels That Can't Move
OPEC+ is leaving its November targets unchanged with Brent above $100, and it barely matters. Core producers were pumping about 5 million barrels a day below pre-war levels in August, so higher targets would be permission they cannot use. The real price driver is whether oil and fuel can physically move. Here is what the $11 Brent-WTI gap is telling you, and the one level to watch when trading reopens tonight.
Oil Pushes the 30-Year Treasury Yield to Its Highest Level Since 2004
Oil just pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2004. Then reports of U.S.-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz knocked Brent $3 lower in minutes. Here's why the bond market is treating oil as an inflation problem, not a growth problem, and why next week's inflation data and jobs report could decide where yields go next.
Oil Falls Below $100 Despite Attacks on Saudi Arabia: Why Barrels Beat Headlines
Weekend attacks on Saudi Arabia should have sent oil soaring. Instead, WTI slipped below $100 as Saudi exports rebounded and U.S.–Iran diplomacy came into view. Here's why the market trusted the barrels over the headlines, and the one price level that decides what happens next.
Three Chokepoints, Zero Backup: Why One Tanker Strike Just Repriced the Entire Oil Market
A ship was hit in the Strait of Hormuz overnight — but the tanker isn't the story. It landed while Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, carrying 4 to 5 million barrels a day, sits shut after drone strikes, and Houthi forces tighten their grip on the Red Sea exit. Three chokepoints, one system, no spare route. Here's what that means for oil, for record diesel prices, and for Wednesday's Fed decision.
Oil Hits $99 After Saudi Strike — But Gold Fell. That Divergence Is the Real Story
Oil hit $99 after Iran-backed Houthi forces struck Saudi energy facilities, with Brent up 2% and WTI up more than 3% to $94.41. But gold fell on the same session — and that divergence is the real signal. Here's what it says about the Fed, why this week's CPI and PPI prints can't answer the question everyone's asking, and the three scenarios into the September 15-16 meeting.