Euro Hits a 17-Month Low: Why the French-German Yield Gap Is the Number That Matters
The euro just dropped below $1.12 for the first time since May 2025, and the dollar rose even as Fed hike odds collapsed. That only makes sense once you see what the bond market is saying about France. Here's how a 150-basis-point yield gap became a currency problem, and the level that decides whether it becomes a European one.
The Strait of Hormuz Is Running at 17% of Normal — and Stocks Just Closed Near a Record High
The world's most important oil chokepoint is operating at 17% of normal capacity under active attack — and U.S. stocks closed the week a fraction below a record high. That gap isn't irrational. It's a specific, testable bet that this is a price problem, not a growth problem. Here's what breaks it, and why this week's retail earnings and Fed minutes are the stress test.