Rate Hike Odds Jump to 57%, Nvidia Falls 4.6%: How One Jackson Hole Speech Repriced the Entire Market
Nvidia gained 8.7% on AI guidance Thursday, then fell 4.6% Friday on news that had nothing to do with Nvidia. What changed was the price of money. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh put the 2% target back at the center of the market, September rate hike odds jumped from roughly 35% to 57%, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 13 basis points to a one-month high, and gold dropped 3%. Here's the full causal chain, the falsification test for whether it holds, and the three scenarios for the August jobs report.
Nvidia's $442 Billion Day: Why the Rest of the Market Didn't Follow
Nvidia's $442 billion single-day market cap gain was historic, but the rally underneath it was narrow — only tech finished higher, even as Salesforce and CrowdStrike surged on their own guidance raises. With oil rebounding and Kevin Warsh set to speak at Jackson Hole, here's what actually moved markets Thursday and what to watch next.
Kospi Crashes 10.8% as China's Chip Breakthrough Rattles Semiconductors — Oil Suffers Biggest Drop Since April
South Korea's Kospi crashed 10.8% overnight, halting trading, as a report on China building deep ultraviolet lithography machines sent Samsung and SK Hynix into freefall. Oil posted its biggest one-day drop since April, Bitcoin slipped under $64,000, and the Federal Reserve decides tomorrow. Here's what's driving the global risk-off move.