Why BlackRock and Merrill Haven’t Launched an XRP ETF (Yet) — And What It Could Mean for Price

Could one filing from BlackRock change the entire XRP market structure?

Right now, the world’s largest asset manager dominates Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Billions in assets. Massive institutional flows. Wall Street validation.

But when it comes to XRP, they’ve stayed on the sidelines.

Why?

And more importantly… what happens if that changes?

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Let’s break down the data, the strategy, and the real catalysts that could reshape XRP’s institutional future.

The State of XRP Spot ETFs in 2026

As of February 13, 2026, XRP spot ETFs have officially been trading in the United States since late 2025.

Here’s what the numbers show:

• 7 active XRP spot ETFs

• ~$1.1 billion AUM (assets under management)

• ~797 million XRP tokens locked

• 0.797% of total XRP supply held in regulated ETF vehicles

• ~$1.23 billion cumulative inflows since launch

Despite XRP trading around $1.40 — roughly 60–70% below its 2025 highs — institutional accumulation continues.

Early February alone saw $51 million in net inflows, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced outflows. On February 9, Bitwise’s XRP ETF recorded $8.29 million in a single day.

Major XRP ETF Issuers

• Bitwise Asset Management (Ticker: XRP)

• Grayscale Investments (GXRP)

• Franklin Templeton (XRPZ)

• 21Shares (TOXR)

• Canary Capital (XRPC)

Quietly, institutions are building exposure.

But the biggest name in the game is still missing.

Why Hasn’t BlackRock Launched an XRP ETF?

1. Demand Thresholds

BlackRock manages trillions. They are not early adopters. They are scale adopters.

Their iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Ethereum ETFs exploded because client demand was undeniable.

BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets, Robert Mitchnick, has consistently stated:

They move when client interest reaches “core portfolio” level.

Bitcoin and Ethereum qualify.

XRP — not yet.

BlackRock is a responder, not a pioneer. They wait for proof of sustained flows before entering.

2. Regulatory Caution

Even after the SEC–Ripple settlement in 2025 clarified XRP is not a security on secondary markets, institutions at BlackRock’s size require:

• Clear custody frameworks

• Institutional-grade pricing mechanisms

• Bulletproof compliance clarity

• Zero gray-area liability risk

At their scale, ambiguity equals exposure.

They can’t afford missteps.

3. Market Infrastructure Depth

Bitcoin has:

• CME futures depth

• Massive liquidity

• Multi-cycle institutional testing

XRP’s derivatives and institutional plumbing are improving — but they are not yet Bitcoin-level mature.

For pension funds and endowments, infrastructure must be ironclad.

Could BlackRock Enter in 2026 or 2027?

Here’s where things get interesting.

Speculation is building that BlackRock could file for an XRP ETF in late 2026 or early 2027.

Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, described it as a “wait-and-see” game.

The key trigger?

Consistent monthly inflows — possibly $300 million per month — proving durable institutional demand.

If BlackRock files, analysts suggest:

• Structural validation

• Massive signaling effect

• Potential price expansion toward $2–$3

• Possible doubling from current levels

Not because of hype — but because of institutional reclassification.

What About Merrill Lynch?

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Merrill Lynch operates under Bank of America.

Important distinction:

Merrill does not issue ETFs.

They are:

• A broker-dealer

• A wealth platform

• An access provider

As of January 5, 2026, Merrill advisors can recommend regulated crypto ETFs including:

• BlackRock IBIT

• Fidelity Investments FBTC

• Bitwise Asset Management BITB

• Grayscale Investments mini Bitcoin trust

Since XRP ETFs are now regulated products, clients can access them through Merrill platforms.

But here’s the subtle signal:

In early February 2026, Bank of America disclosed:

• ~13,000 shares of the Volatility Shares XRP ETF

• Valued around ~$225,000

Tiny relative to their ~$3.3 trillion balance sheet.

But symbolically important.

It’s indirect exposure.

And that matters.

The Catalysts That Could Change Everything

Several developments could accelerate institutional adoption:

1. Clearer Federal Regulation

A comprehensive framework (such as a potential CLARITY Act) would reduce institutional hesitation.

2. Sustained ETF Inflows

If XRP ETFs demonstrate consistent multi-quarter demand, the threshold argument disappears.

3. Broader Market Recovery

Risk-on sentiment brings institutional expansion beyond Bitcoin.

4. Infrastructure Maturity

Expanded futures depth, custody growth, and liquidity scaling.

The Strategic Holdout

BlackRock and Merrill aren’t ignoring XRP.

They’re waiting.

Waiting for:

• Proven demand

• Clean regulation

• Institutional-grade infrastructure

• Risk asymmetry in their favor

When those align — the move could be decisive.

What This Means for XRP’s Future

Right now, XRP ETFs already hold nearly 0.8% of total supply.

That’s not retail speculation.

That’s structural absorption.

If the largest asset manager in the world files for an XRP ETF, it wouldn’t just be another product.

It would be a signal to pensions, endowments, and sovereign allocators.

And markets respond to signals.

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Disclaimer

Quick disclaimer: I’m not a licensed financial advisor. This is for educational purposes only. Crypto is volatile — never invest more than you can afford to lose, do your own research.